2025’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…
By David Page, François Cabau, Gabriella Dickens, Danny Richards and Claire Dissaux - AXA IM Macro Research
Key Points:
- Fewer countries are set to hold elections in 2025 compared to 2024 but important political challenges still lie ahead
- Germany’s elections on 23 February should see a CDU/CSU coalition emerge to address the nation’s challenges
- Europe has several fragile governments: Austria’s government has collapsed; France is at risk, while Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands are unstable
- Canada’s elections will likely be held before the mandated October date following Justin Trudeau’s resignation – a Conservative win is expected
- Czech and Chilean elections look set to shift politics to the right. Ecuador’s election will likely determine future IMF support
- Presidential elections in Romania, Poland and possibly South Korea could all impact the political balance in each nation
- Mid-term elections in Argentina and the Philippines will also set the direction for government policy in each country
2025: Fewer elections, more political challenges
2024 was an exceptional year for political change, with more than 60 countries, half the global population, going to the polls. This year will see fewer polls, but last year’s elections will start to deliver change, raising political challenges.
Europe stands out: only Germany faces scheduled elections, with the CDU/CSU likely to lead a new coalition government while also facing significant economic challenges. However, in France political instability risks renewed elections from July. The Austrian government has already collapsed and in Spain and the Netherlands governments are fragile. Elsewhere, Canada looks set to hold elections before October and a change of government to Conservatives looks likely.
In emerging markets (EM), elections look likely to deliver a shift to the right in the Czech Republic and Chile. Though smaller, in Ecuador, elections could be key to continued access to International Monetary Fund (IMF) support. Presidential elections will take place in Romania, in May after the annulled election in December, and in Poland, where President Andrzej Duda has been obstructing the government since its election in 2023. South Korea may also face a presidential election after its brush with martial law. Midterm elections in Argentina and the Philippines will also be important checks on the progress of the current governments.
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Dominique Frantzen
Jennifer Luca
Serge Vanbockryck