PIB de la zone euro : l'Espagne rugit, l'Allemagne tousse
Hugo Le Damany et François Cabau, économiste et senior eurozone economist chez AXA Investment Managers, commentent les chiffres du PIB de la zone euro pour le deuxième trimestre :
- Le PIB de la zone euro a augmenté de +0,3% en glissement trimestriel (t/t) au deuxième trimestre, au-dessus de nos prévisions (+0,1%) et du consensus (+0,2%).
- L'Allemagne est préoccupante, la France et l'Italie s'en sortent bien, l'Espagne surprend à la hausse.
- Les données préliminaires indiquent une contribution soutenue du commerce net, moins de la demande intérieure (sauf en Espagne).
- La croissance du PIB devrait rester positive au cours des prochains trimestres, mais probablement ralentie par les pays du noyau dur comme l'Allemagne (et, dans une moindre mesure, la France), comme le soulignent les enquêtes de juillet.
- À moins que l'inflation des services ne surprenne à la hausse en juillet et/ou en août, les gouverneurs devraient s'accorder sur une hausse de 25 points de base lors de la prochaine réunion de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE), prévue le 12 septembre.
Euro area real GDP grew by 0.3% qoq in Q2, above our forecast (+0.1) and consensus (+0.2%). Core countries ranged between poor (Germany and Austria respectively at -0.1% et 0%), to decent growth (France and Belgium at +0.3% and +0.2). The main surprise came again from Spain with an astonishing performance (+0.8%) while Italian growth was also decent (+0.2% after +0.3% in Q1). Finally, we had two interesting and contrasting surprises: Ireland rising by a strong +1.2% qoq and Portugal running out of steam (+0.1% after +0.8% in Q1).
We highlighted Q1 GDP growth as being artificially higher due to an unusual construction sector boost in Germany and Italy (to normalise in Q2), while domestic demand was weak. This pattern is true in almost all other countries, but total euro area GDP growth reached +0.3%, boosted by a buoyant Spain (worth 0.1pt of total euro area growth).
After a tentative rebound in Q1 - confirmed at +0.3% - today's figures shows that the road to a truly sustainable recovery will be a long and winding path. It could even be delayed in Q4 after July surveys reported another weak start for Q3 in core countries, particularly for Germany and France.
Unless services inflation were to surprise on the upside in July and/or August, there should be a consensus amongst Governors for a 25 basis points (bps) at the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, scheduled on 12 September. Indeed, as the supply shock fades and weak demand becomes increasingly evident, the argument to maintain policy rates in such restrictive territory weakens.
France
French Q2 GDP came at 0.3% qoq, slightly above our own estimate of +0.2%. Previous quarterly data has been revised higher by 0.1pt, reaching +0.3% in Q1 and +0.4% in Q4 last year. The GDP growth carry over (assuming no more growth for the rest of the year) is now at 1%, in line with the French government objective.
According to The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies' (INSEE) preliminary data, domestic demand is weak, and there hasn't been any growth in private consumption (+0% from -0.1% in Q1), but demand is up slightly thanks to investments that came at +0.1% (after -0.4%). Net trade was the main contributor (0.2pts) with exports rising by a strong +0.6% (after +0.7%) while imports were flat.
Looking forward, snap legislative elections in France have impacted business and household confidences. Despite the fact that none of the worst-case scenarios have materialised, uncertainty remains high and is likely to have an impact in coming months as some business need some clarity and continuity. Last but not least, we believe the expected boost to real GDP from the Olympic Games is overestimated and should be compensated by a crowding-out effect, which is quite common following this type of event (less tourists in Paris before the Olympic Games, France as a destination became much more expensive, reducing arrivals in other regions…etc). We believe our +0.2% for Q3 are slightly tilted to the downside, and most recent surveys - Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) and INSEE - have not reassured in July.
Germany
After a surprising +0.2% qoq in Q1 (boosted by a rare uptick in construction sector during winter), real GDP growth normalised and came at -0.1% in Q2. It was broadly in line with our expectations (0%, consensus: +0.1%) and highlights how Germany is struggling to recover. Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, hasn't yet provided further details. However, we wouldn't be surprised if the weakness comes from a lack of recovery in domestic demand, particularly from investments (Destatis reported “that investment in machinery, equipment and construction decreased”), and from the limited improvement from private consumption, which should be compensated by net trade but is not helped by weak demand from China. Looking at the supply side, the weakness in the manufacturing sector is very striking with industrial production declining by around 1.5% qoq (we're still missing June figure), remaining around 8% below its pre pandemic level (in real terms).
The services sector has probably avoided a disastrous Q2 with surveys looking better in Q2 (above 50 thresholds for PMI and the Q1 average for the Ifo Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), but without strong momentum). However, this has likely proven insufficient as the manufacturing sector failed to follow through on the (weak) signals of recovery seen at the start of the year. Those surveys were even more worrying in July, pointing to a severe drawdown for the sector, while services activity is less supportive than before. For the time being, Q3 GDP carry over is negative. We will wait for Q2 GDP details but our +0.2% qoq for Q3 and Q4 may have to be revised down slightly.
Italy and Spain
Italy and Spain came respectively at +0.2% qoq (-0.1pt from Q1) and +0.8% (same pace than Q2). Both above our forecasts (+0.1% and +0.5%).
For Italy, The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) provides general comments, highlighting a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component. The GDP growth carry over for 2024 is 0.7%. We had forecast a sharp fall in housing and construction due to the end of the Superbonus (a 110% tax credit for home energy renovation), offset by a gradual recovery in private consumption and Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds flowing into domestic investments (private and public). Excluding the fluctuations of Italy's Superbonus in Q1 and Q2, we believe Italian GDP is improving slowly but surely. We will await details of GDP, but at first sight, our forecast of +0.2% for Q3 and Q4 remains valid.
Spain roars again. The nation's National Statistics Institute (INE) released detailed GDP figures with domestic demand contributed 0.3 points (pts) and external demand 0.5pts. Both private consumption and investments rose by +0.3% qoq. Exports rose by an astonishing +1.2 while imports registered a rate of -0.2%. We lack further details on exports at this stage, but we suspect tourism spending (accounted in export services) was still a major driver of Spanish buoyant economic activity. On the supply side, all the large sectors presented positive rates in their value added, a clear contradiction with Germany. We remain bullish on Spain for the rest of the year (+0.6% in Q3 and Q4).
Notes to editors
All data sourced by AXA IM as at 30 July 2024.
