De meilleurs chiffres du PIB pour le troisième trimestre (à la marge) et une pause temporaire dans le processus de désinflation
Hugo Le Damany et François Cabau, Economist et Senior Eurozone Economist at AXA Investment Managers
- La croissance du PIB au T3 s'est établie à +0,4% par rapport au trimestre précédent, avec quelques signes préliminaires du rebond tant attendu de la consommation. La dynamique de croissance reste hétérogène : l'Espagne est en plein essor, l'Allemagne fait un peu mieux que prévu, la France bénéficie des Jeux olympiques tandis que l'Italie déçoit.
- Nous pensons toujours que la dynamique de croissance de la zone euro est plus proche de +0,2 % par trimestre jusqu'à S2 2025.
- L'inflation globale a rebondi à 2 % en glissement annuel, l'inflation de base est restée stable à 2,7 %. Ce chiffre est légèrement supérieur aux attentes, mais reste cohérent avec la petite hausse prévue au 4ème trimestre.
- Nous continuons de penser que l'inflation se stabilisera au niveau ou légèrement en dessous de l'objectif en S1 2025, permettant à la BCE de poursuivre sa phase de normalisation avec des baisses de taux successives de 25 points de base jusqu'en juin 2025 pour atteindre 2 %.
GDP: a small boost, but still no conviction of better near-term outlook
Euro area GDP came at +0.37% qoq above our forecasts and consensus (+0.2%). Spain (+0.8%) and Germany (+0.2%) came above expectations, France (+0.4%) was in line while Italy (0%) disappointed (Exhibit 1). Again, worth to mention that Ireland jumped by +2% qoq (after -1%), distorting a bit the reading. Removing extraordinary boost from Paris Olympics and excluding Irish data, euro area GDP growth is below +0.3% qoq.
Preliminary data and comments from statistical agencies highlight a better domestic demand but 1) it is largely skewed towards buoyant Spanish economy 2) one-off from the Paris Olympics and 3) a rebound in Germany that may just react to lower figure in Q2 (to be confirmed when details will be released).
We are not convinced it is signaling a better outlook and we reiterate our below-consensus forecast for GDP in 2025, sticking to the view that current economic growth in euro area is closer to +0.2% qoq per quarter until mid-2025. Worth to mention that European Commission surveys for October came again on the weak side: industrial sector fell again to -13 from -10.9 while services sector was slightly up (+7.1 from +6.7) but unable to avoid a loss in aggregated economic sentiment (95.6; -0.6pt) and business climate (-0.96 from -0.76).
Germany: real GDP increased by +0.2% qoq but Q2 was revised down to -0.3% (from -0.1%). We are lacking details to comment further but Destatis reported "that government and household final consumption expenditure increased in the third quarter of 2024". There is a risk such upside surprise is a response to downside revision in Q2, but it will be validated with GDP second estimate. In the meantime, we still foresee a gradual but weak private consumption in coming quarters.
France: real GDP growth came at +0.36% qoq, in line with our forecast (+0.36%) but above consensus. Private consumption rebounded by +0.5% qoq but investment fell further by -0.8%qoq (after -0.1%). Looking by components, the decline is quite important for non-financial companies (-1.4% qoq after -0.2%) and INSEE raised a regulatory issue in auto sector, but we can't exclude the political turmoil has also an effect on investment project. Net trade contribution was positive but thanks to imports falling faster than exports. Last but not least, INSEE estimated that the Olympic Games contributed to 0.2pp for Q3 and will consequently impact negatively Q4 growth that we still forecast at 0% qoq.
Italy: real GDP growth was flat and below our forecast and consensus (+0.2%). We only have preliminary comments at this stage, but Istat stated that the positive contribution from domestic demand was offset by net exports.
Spain: Real GDP increased by +0.8% qoq above our own forecast and consensus (+0.6%). Private and government consumption were the main engine of growth with respective gain of +1.1% qoq and +2.2%. Investment fell by -0.7%% after two solid quarters in Q1 and Q2. Imports rose much faster than exports and then amplified the negative contribution from net exports but overall, the Spanish buoyant economy persists.
Inflation: services inflation still firm, food inflation unexpectedly rebound
As expected, euro area headline inflation rebounded in October as negative energy base effects were less important, but this came at 2%, above consensus expectations (1.9%). Both core and food inflation surprised on the upside.
Core inflation was flat at 2.7%, above expectations of a decline to 2.6%. Services inflation was flat at 3.9% while non energy industrial goods (NEIG) came at +0.5% yoy (+0.1p from Sep).
Looking into preliminary details, the small upward surprise in services is partially explained by an unexpected rebound in Germany (CPI services inflation rebounded to 4% yoy; +0.2p), driven by an uptick in air fares/packages holidays but also auto insurances. Spanish core CPI inflation was also a bit firmer at 2.5% (+0.1pp) unless we lack the details between services and good. In Italy, services inflation rose by 0.1pp to 3.1% yoy. Only France services inflation declined but less than anticipated.
As usual, we look at the ECB seasonally adjusted measure and the latter does not bring “new” news. Services inflation momentum is flat vs September but still closer to target (Exhibit 2) while EC surveys showed companies continue to declare some willingness to normalise their price setting behaviour (Exhibit 3).
The other surprise came from food inflation that came at 2.9% yoy rising from 2.4% in September. That was boosted by both fresh food and processed food. Some months ago, we had foreseen that food inflation would stop decelerating, but this surge was unexpected. It is too soon to extrapolate any trend from a single point but if it stabilises at current level, it could represent a threat to disinflation process.
All in all, despite small upside surprise on inflation in October, the signal is unchanged. We shared ECB' expectations that a small pick-up in headline inflation would occur in Q4 but headline inflation is at target and is expected to remain at current level or slightly below in H1 2025.
