Op automatische piloot tot afsluiting op neutraal tarief

• De Raad van Bestuur van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) heeft unaniem besloten de depositorente met 25 basispunten te verlagen tot 2,75%, zoals algemeen verwacht.

• Geen wijzigingen in de communicatie, zoals verwacht. Voorzichtige, data-afhankelijke aanpak blijft behouden.

• President Lagarde bleef vaag over de neutrale rente. Meer nieuws volgt op 7 februari, wanneer de bijgewerkte ramingen door ECB-medewerkers worden gepubliceerd.

• Lagarde hield met moeite vast aan de officiële groeiverwachtingen. Wij verwachten in maart een (aanzienlijke) neerwaartse bijstelling.

• Wij behouden onze basisverwachting van opeenvolgende renteverlagingen naar 2% in juni en een jaareinde-doelstelling van 1,5%.

Another 25bps rate cut delivered as expected. As widely expected, a fourth consecutive rate cut was decided – and fifth in total in this cycle - at today’s meeting, bringing the depo rate to 2.75%. During the press conference, President Lagarde mentioned that this decision was unanimous. She reported that unlike at the December meeting, a 50bps rate cut had not been discussed. ​ ​ 

No change in communication. The press conference brought virtually no new information to almost identical wording between the December and January monetary policy statement. The ECB is to keep a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. President Lagarde mentioned that by the March meeting, the GC will receive two more inflation prints and updated new forecasts. As the policy stance is still restrictive, it bodes well for another 25bps rate cut in March, as widely expected. Besides, she remained elusive on the neutral rate, highlighting that the debate is premature and “when we get closer, they will operate among others on the basis of staff research paper”, with updated estimates to be published on 7 February. It will be key to see whether the updated range will be closer to what she mentioned in December (1.75-2.5%; midpoint is 2.125%), or that she mentioned in Davos (1.75-2.25%; mid point is 2%). 

President Lagarde was surprisingly dismissive to growth worries. Today’s meeting came after the disappointing news that euro area GDP had stagnated in Q4 2024, thus coming significantly below ECB’s December staff 0.2% q/q forecast. Thus, ECB’s optimistic growth narrative (1.1% projected for 2025, Exhibit 1) is likely to be (significantly) revised down in March, materializing some of the long (unchanged since December) list of downside risks to growth. We think that private consumption and net exports are likely to be particularly affected by the revision. Finally, we were surprised that she also dismissed the impact on financing conditions of the recent long end rate sell-off. 

We maintain our baseline of continuous cuts until June to 2%, reaching 1.5% by year-end. Our baseline foresees only moderate growth improvement driven by private consumption this year. Continuous acceleration next year requires a recovery in investment that we see mainly driven by our expected rate cuts. More challenging times lie in the Spring, as soon as March, as we head closer to the high end of the neutral rate range. Incoming data will be paramount to tilt the decision to whether landing within neutral (2%) will be enough, or whether outright accommodation will be required, as is our baseline.

Hugo Le DamanyFrançois Cabau